PMW's daily-updated sentiment tracker for the trade-reported Japanese expansion Storm Emeralda (Set M6, expected July 31, 2026). The trademark filing on June 16, 2025 is the only TPCJ-anchored fact about this set; everything else is trade-reported pending an official /ex/m6/ listing on pokemon-card.com.
This page recomputes daily from sentiment_snapshots. The hype index is a 0-100 normalization of mention velocity across Twitter JP, Snkrdunk Magazine, pokeca-chart listing volume, and trade-press supply events, weighted by the cleanest-signal sources first.
0Hype index / 100As of 2026-06-05
Hype trend since trademark filing
2025-06-162026-06-05330
Market forecast pmw-v1.0-heuristic
PMW's model-based forecast for the JP-domestic sealed booster box price, broken out by horizon and decomposed into the input factors that produced it. Every number on this section is a forecast, not a fact. See how the predictor works for the full method.
30 days conf 0.28-12.4%band -35.4% to +10.6%
- Phase +12.0%
- Sentiment -10.0%
- FX +0.1%
- Supply -15.0%
- JP→US lag +0.0%
- Macro +0.5%
90 days conf 0.24+6.7%band -17.4% to +30.7%
- Phase +25.0%
- Sentiment -5.0%
- FX +0.2%
- Supply -15.0%
- JP→US lag +0.0%
- Macro +1.5%
12 months conf 0.17+2.8%band -23.0% to +28.6%
- Phase +15.0%
- Sentiment -1.5%
- FX +0.3%
- Supply -15.0%
- JP→US lag +0.0%
- Macro +4.0%
Input freshness: Sentiment: today FX: today Last supply event: today JP price: no data
Source breakdown
| Source | Hype | Volume | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
pokeca_chart |
0 | 0 | 2026-06-05 |
snkrdunk_magazine |
0 | 0 | 2026-06-05 |
supply_events |
0 | 0 | 2026-06-05 |
twitter_jp |
0 | 0 | 2026-06-05 |
Key dates
- 2025-06-16 Storm Emeralda trademark filed by Nintendo / Creatures / Game Freak under Class 28Trademark filing dated 2025-06-16 (publication 2025-06-23). The one 100%-certain primary fact anchoring Storm Emeralda. Class 28 = games/toys, the class historically used for TCG set names. Triggered same-day price spike on Rayquaza-bearing vintage cards.Snkrdunk: Storm Emeralda trademark
- 2026-02-01 Abyss Eye and Storm Emeralda preliminary details revealedTrade press converges on M5 (Abyss Eye, May 2026) and M6 (Storm Emeralda, July 2026) as a paired MEGA-series release. PMW treats this as trade-reported, not TPCJ-confirmed.PokeBeach
- 2026-07-31 Expected JP release (trade-reported)Trade-press consensus from PokeBeach, PokeGuardian, and Samurai Sword Tokyo. Not yet confirmed by TPCJ on pokemon-card.com.
Companion product slate
| Type | Trade name | MSRP (JPY, tax-incl) |
|---|---|---|
| Booster box (30 packs) | Storm Emeralda (trade name; no TPCi name yet) | ¥6,000 |
| Booster pack (5 cards) | Storm Emeralda booster pack (trade name) | ¥200 |
| Premium collection file | Collection File Premium Mega Rayquaza | ¥2,200 |
| MEGA starter set | MEGA Starter Set: Sprigatito & Meowscarada ex | ¥1,800 |
| MEGA starter set | MEGA Starter Set: Eevee ex | ¥1,800 |
| MEGA starter set | MEGA Starter Set: Zorua & Zoroark ex | ¥1,800 |
All product specs are trade-reported. The booster spec (30 packs, ¥6,000 box, 5 cards/pack, ¥200/pack) carries forward from M5 Abyss Eye (TPCJ-confirmed). The full slate is consistent across PokeGuardian and Samurai Sword Tokyo reporting but has not been officially listed by TPCJ.
Historical comp: Sky Stream (S7R, July 2021)
Sky Stream / 蒼空ストリーム was the prior single-Pokemon-themed Rayquaza set in the Sword & Shield era. Its anchor chase card, Rayquaza VMAX SA (S7R 083/067), traced the canonical JP zetsuban arc:
- 2021 launch — ~¥150,000 PSA 10 (altema historical)
- Mid-2025 — ¥850,000+ PSA 10 (trademark-day reporting)
- April 2026 — ¥1,070,000 PSA 10 (current)
PSA 10 population: 2,399. PSA 10 success rate from submitted copies: 86.6%. Pack itself is 絶版 (out of print). altema price tracker.
Methodology
The hype index is a weighted average of per-source sub-scores. Each sub-score maps today's mention volume against the trailing 30-day median for that source on this set, so a set with steady chatter doesn't register as "hot" unless its velocity accelerates. Sources without coverage in the window contribute 0 rather than being silently omitted.
Weights reflect signal cleanliness per PMW's JP secondary-venue research. Snkrdunk and pokeca-chart get the largest weights (cleanest authenticated marketplaces, no shill-bid contamination); Twitter JP and the supply-events stream get smaller weights (leading-indicator chatter, larger noise floor).
The market forecast is a heuristic model that combines six input factors: the set's current phase in the four-phase reprint cycle (Phase 1 lottery, Phase 2 launch hype, Phase 3 reprint trough, Phase 4 zetsuban climb); current hype index; trailing 30-day JPY/USD movement; recent supply events (reprints, lottery drops, price hikes) decayed by age; the JP-leads-US lag indicator for paired sets; and a structural macro overlay (TPCi distribution consolidation, JP retail allocation policy, mass-retail allocation limits). Coefficients are grounded in PMW's own research; the model version tag identifies which weights produced each historical forecast.
Confidence reflects data density (more sentiment snapshots = higher), release status (post-release more confident than pre-release), and horizon (nearer horizons more confident than longer ones). The confidence band widens proportionally — a low-confidence forecast comes with a wide range.
Editorial discipline rule: every factual claim on this page traces to a primary source recorded in supply_events or to the set's brief. Forecast values are forecasts, not facts, and are framed as such. When a TPCJ disclosure changes a trade-reported fact, the brief is updated first and this page refreshes on the next daily cron.
For the complete predictor model, every coefficient, the data sources, and what the model can't do, see PMW's published Predictor Methodology page.